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  Thitima

  Aug 8, 2012

  RE: Environment and Development ChallengesGentlemen;I urge you, please think about doing the liltte data search that I now propose. This is a project that is a natural fit for the singularitarians; big data, big need for creativity, big need for math.Both camps the singularitarians and the peak oil people use charts to make their points. Both camps are apparently made up of very bright people. The singularitarians seem to be a lot richer than the others, but that shouldn’t come as a surprise given the way representatives from the two camps think (see “Quiet” and the first part of “Abundance”). But the two camps disagree. You disagree because the Peak-Oil guys are looking at the back of the elephant, while the singularitarians refuse to look at anything but the trunk and head.According to Kurzweil and crew, all we need to do is wait 10-30 years, and viola, a beautiful ecological, financial, and sociological utopia will blossom of its own accord. For the Peak-oil people the resources are gone and this civilization is over the collapse has begun and there is nothing to be done. I don’t know which view is true, but I’ve spent a pile of money planning (and acting) for the worst while hoping the singularitarians are correct. Wouldn’t it be great to actually know who is right?Please, simply plot “resources” and “technology” against time on the same graph. I am just an old programmer and subsistence farmer, but I will begin to flesh out the project below.The Proposal:“Resources” will need to be defined carefully to include all of the things listed in the recent paper (Ehrlich, et al). No doubt the authors can help with a list of relevant things on which to gather data. The aggregating formula will need to include oil, coal, gas, timber, soil, environmental diversity, etc. as actual resources and global warming, and other growing problems as deductions to those resources. (You might want to talk to Dr. Jeff Masters to get the global warming stuff right.)“Technology” Well, if the singularitarians can’t create a good aggregate number to represent technological progress then no one can. Something close actually appears at location 1313 on my Kindle edition of “The Singularity is Near”. That graph is just a pictorial representation (i think) but the gist is the same.What I Hope We Learn: The data will show one of three things:1. We are in fact on track to be as Gods and we should get good at it.In this scenario, we have seen a liltte dip in resources already, but it isn’t enough to worry about. Business as usual will allow some environmental degradation and we will move down the “wrong side” of the peak oil curve some, but then smart computers and whatever (nanotech) makes the problems go away.2. If we do everything right (maybe by triggering a depression), we can still make it. This is the tough scenario. We can make it! All that needs to happen is for our leaders to understand both issues and take action despite being paid not to by Exxon etc.. Imagine the frustration of knowing that our civilization can come out the other side into the promised utopia if only Mitt or Newt or Barry will do the right thing.Wow, what a stark choice they would be presented with! Do the right thing now conserve, slow down the resource depletion and give our children a future utopia, OR do nothing, take your bribes (Sorry, I mean donations.) and meet us in hell.The data may be too complex for the graph to be beyond interpretation, but its real value is what it will show over time. If the first running of the model shows nothing or only a liltte, fine, wait a year or two and run it again. Eventually, the truth will begin to be more obvious. Hopefully, before its too late to take any action you will be able to present something undeniable.“Maybe by triggering a depression” WTF is that guy nuts??!?!?!? No, I’m dead serious, and certifiably sane. It bears repeating a liltte suffering now compared to permanent utopia not a difficult choice.3. Its over There is a liltte farm right next to mine, come join me. We will watch the collapse of this civilization together.I’ve been reading a few things and you should be familiar with the following if you are to understand where I am at (in order of priority):Environment and Development Challenges: The Imperative to Act 17-2-2012 Paul Ehrlich, et. al. Of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1% | Society | Vanity Fair May, 2011 Joseph E. Stiglitz “The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality” Richard Heinberg “The Ecotechnic Future: Envisioning a Post-Peak World” John Michael Greer “Bird on Fire: Lessons from the World’s Least Sustainable City” Andrew Ross “A Great Aridness: Climate Change and the Future of the American Southwest” William deBuys “Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation” Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee “Abundance” Steven Kotler “Death of the Liberal Class” Chris Hedges “The End of Energy” Michael Graetz “The Great Stagnation” Tyler Cowen “Quiet” Susan Cain

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